The Best House in the Neighborhood
Posted by Jim Heitman on March 3rd, 2012When in casual conversation people discover what I do for a living I am often asked, “Where should I put my money?” The answer to that question has too many variables to give an easy answer. Sometimes, when the conversation goes on for a bit, people seem very surprised (even shocked) that I have a portion of my client’s portfolios in stocks. I see responses from, “Isn’t that risky” to “there is so much that can go wrong.” They are right, stocks carry some very real risks, but as I see it they have a better risk/return profile than most other asset classes do today. Domestic (US) stocks are, “The best house in the neighborhood,” or, more accurately, “The best house in a bad neighborhood.”
Cash investments are showing such poor interest rates that, after taxes, you are barely ahead of stuffing cash in a mattress. Adjust those rates for inflation and you are better off buying spam (assuming you have a large cupboard and like spam). Those insured and guaranteed accounts are guaranteed to lose buying power.
Fixed Income investments are suffering a similar fate. Worse, they value of those investments fluctuate in an inverse relationship to interest rates. This means that if rates go up the value of bonds will go down. As rates are much more likely to go up from the current levels fixed income investments really need to be viewed as a way to generate income, and not a place for growth.
Real Estate seems very unlikely to make a big comeback in the immediate future. This is particularly true if interest rates begin to rise. That combined with the significant supply available in the housing market means that Real Estate has very little upside for a couple of years.
Commodities are a mixed bag, and precious metals seem to have gotten quite a bit ahead of their historic growth rates. Gold, with very little industrial use and a long term history of matching inflation, seems very speculative at these levels. Barring a significant disaster gold and silver just do not look like great bets. A fair amount of gold’s recent rise appears to be based on the assumption of continued easing on the part of the fed. When Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s speech this week seem to signal the fed would be much less likely to continue easy money policies, stocks retreated a bit (about half a percent). The biggest reaction came from precious metals with Gold and silver both dropping more than five percent.
The world is a scary place. Terrorist attacks, earthquakes, tsunamis, and financial woes in Europe and Asia make it a scary place for stocks as well. Even with all that, corporations are lean and efficient and growing earnings. Americans are slowly returning to work and debt is decreasing. Though it is never easy to guess what will happen next, stocks appear to be ready to return to their historic place as the best hedge against inflation. They are “the best house in the neighborhood.” At least for now.
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Jim Heitman, CFP®, is a writer, speaker, Certified Financial Planning practitioner in Southern California, and the founder of Compass Financial Planning – a fee-only planning and money management firm. Phone (909) 373-5204 Facsimile (909) 912-8290 www.myfinancialcompass.net |




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